Oscar season will be in full swing Tuesday morning when Tracee Ellis Ross and Kumail Nanjiani (who should host the Oscars, by the way) announce the 2019 Oscar nominations at the ungodly hour of 5:20 a.m. PST. While the race was open wide only a few weeks ago, a slew of hefty awards shows, including the Golden Globes and the Producers Guild Awards, have given us a clearer picture of who will be nominated and eventually snatch a trophy. But before we can even think about who will win, we first have to think about who will be nominated.
Here are Out's official Oscar predictions in all major categories.
1. Best Picture
The rules for best picture now dictate that anywhere between 5 and 10 films can be nominated, depending on how many votes a movie receives. Given their hefty wins, expect Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody to show up, as well as other heavily-cited films like Black Panther, The Favourite, Roma and A Star Is Born. The rest is a tad up the air. I'm sad to report that If Beale Street Could Talk, despite being one of the best films of the year, has missed a lot of precursors and may be off the final list.
BlacKkKlansman Black Panther Bohemian Rhapsody The Favourite Green Book If Beale Street Could Talk Mary Poppins Returns Roma A Star Is Born Vice
Watch Out For: Crazy Rich Asians
In a Perfect World: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Best Director
Expect to see Alfonso Cuaron, Bradley Cooper, and Spike Lee's names on Tuesday morning. The final two spots are up for grabs, though the last-minute Green Book surge does bode well for Peter Farrelly. Of course, it would be nice to see more women and people of color invited to this notorious white male circle, so here's a shoutout to Ryan Coogler and Marielle Heller, who helmed two of the year's most stunning films.
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Peter Farrelly, Green Book Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Watch Out For: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Adam McKay, Vice Pawel Pawlikoski, Cold War
In a Perfect World: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Best Actress
The top 4 in this category -- Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, Melissa McCarthy and Olivia Colman -- have felt locked for some time, with the fifth spot changing every so often. Of those four "locks," if one *does* get swapped out, it'll probably be McCarthy, which is a shame given how fantastic she is in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Predicted Nominees: Glenn Close, The Wife Olivia Colman, The Favourite Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Watch Out For: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns Viola Davis, Widows Toni Collette, Hereditary
In a Perfect World: Toni Collette, Hereditary Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Best Actor
Cooper was once seemed so assured to win this category, but he hasn't walked onto any televised stage to pick up a piece of hardware yet. Malek and Bale have become the go-to winners in best actor categories and while John David Washington is a perpetual sixth nominee, I'm thinking his wonderful performance and his royal Hollywood lineage push him over the edge.
Predicted Nominees: Christian Bale, Vice Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Viggo Mortensen, Green Book John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Watch Out For: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
In a Perfect World: Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Best Supporting Actress
There's a lot happening here, but there shouldn't be. Give it to Regina King, right? Unfortunately, after she missed out on a SAG nomination, her cakewalk to the Oscar stage is a little shaky. And it might mean a last-minute surge for Emily Blunt. But, fear not, I know justice will prevail and King will get her crown.
Predicted Nominees: Amy Adams, Vice Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Emma Stone, The Favourite Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Watch Out For: Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians Claire Foy, First Man
In a Perfect World: Blake Lively, A Simple Favor
5. Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali may soon become a two-time Academy Award winner, another surprise given how strong Sam Elliott seemed earlier in the campaign season. Brian Tyree Henry's name won't be called on Tuesday morning, but between his excellent work in Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, why wouldn't you want him to get some recognition this year?
Predicted Nominees: Mahershala Ali, Green Book Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Watch Out For: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther Sam Rockwell, Vice
In a Perfect World: Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite Daniel Kaluuya, Widows Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
6. Best Adapted Screenplay
Spike Lee won an honorary Oscar in 2015, but has yet to win a competitive one. Even though he should win for directing for BlacKkKlansman, he will probably at least nab a prize for its great screenplay. But really, y'all, we did Widows so dirty. It should be a nominations leader this year, and one of its biggest assets is its script.
Predicted Nominees: Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A Star Is Born Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Watch Out For: Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace
In a Perfect World: Gillian Flynn & Steve McQueen, Widows
7. Best Original Screenplay
And here's your reminder that Green Book's writer Nick Vallelonga agreed with Trump on a racist, Anti-Muslim lie about 9/11! Speaking of controversies, Paul Schrader seemed like more of a sure thing before his Facebook post defending Kevin Spacey! Instead of recognizing them, I wish we could recognize A Quiet Place or Hereditary, both of which are underappreciated because they are horror films or Tamara Jenkins' quiet, contemplative Private Life.
Predicted Nominees: Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite Adam McKay, Vice Nick Vallelonga & Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Watch Out For: Paul Schrader, First Reformed
In a Perfect World: Ari Aster, Hereditary Bryan Woods, Scott Beck & John Krasinski, A Quiet Place Tamara Jenkins, Private Life
If you want to watch the Oscar nominations livestream, just head over to the Academy's YouTube page at 5:20 a.m. PST or 8:20 a.m. EST.