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The 2019 Oscar Nominations Are Almost Here And We Have Thoughts

2019 Oscar Nominations

Oscar season will be in full swing Tuesday morning when Tracee Ellis Ross and Kumail Nanjiani (who should host the Oscars, by the way) announce the 2019 Oscar nominations at the ungodly hour of 5:20 a.m. PST. While the race was open wide only a few weeks ago, a slew of hefty awards shows, including the Golden Globes and the Producers Guild Awards, have given us a clearer picture of who will be nominated and eventually snatch a trophy. But before we can even think about who will win, we first have to think about who will be nominated.

Here are Out's official Oscar predictions in all major categories.

1. Best Picture

The rules for best picture now dictate that anywhere between 5 and 10 films can be nominated, depending on how many votes a movie receives. Given their hefty wins, expect Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody to show up, as well as other heavily-cited films like Black Panther, The Favourite, Roma and A Star Is Born. The rest is a tad up the air. I'm sad to report that If Beale Street Could Talk, despite being one of the best films of the year, has missed a lot of precursors and may be off the final list.

Predicted Nominees:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star Is Born

Watch Out For:
Crazy Rich Asians

In a Perfect World:
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Best Director

Expect to see Alfonso Cuaron, Bradley Cooper, and Spike Lee's names on Tuesday morning. The final two spots are up for grabs, though the last-minute Green Book surge does bode well for Peter Farrelly. Of course, it would be nice to see more women and people of color invited to this notorious white male circle, so here's a shoutout to Ryan Coogler and Marielle Heller, who helmed two of the year's most stunning films.

Predicted Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Watch Out For:
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikoski, Cold War

In a Perfect World:
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Best Actress

The top 4 in this category -- Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, Melissa McCarthy and Olivia Colman -- have felt locked for some time, with the fifth spot changing every so often. Of those four "locks," if one *does* get swapped out, it'll probably be McCarthy, which is a shame given how fantastic she is in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Predicted Nominees:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Watch Out For:
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Viola Davis, Widows
Toni Collette, Hereditary

In a Perfect World:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Best Actor

Cooper was once seemed so assured to win this category, but he hasn't walked onto any televised stage to pick up a piece of hardware yet. Malek and Bale have become the go-to winners in best actor categories and while John David Washington is a perpetual sixth nominee, I'm thinking his wonderful performance and his royal Hollywood lineage push him over the edge.

Predicted Nominees:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Watch Out For:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

In a Perfect World:
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Best Supporting Actress

There's a lot happening here, but there shouldn't be. Give it to Regina King, right? Unfortunately, after she missed out on a SAG nomination, her cakewalk to the Oscar stage is a little shaky. And it might mean a last-minute surge for Emily Blunt. But, fear not, I know justice will prevail and King will get her crown.

Predicted Nominees:
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Watch Out For:
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Claire Foy, First Man

In a Perfect World:
Blake Lively, A Simple Favor

5. Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali may soon become a two-time Academy Award winner, another surprise given how strong Sam Elliott seemed earlier in the campaign season. Brian Tyree Henry's name won't be called on Tuesday morning, but between his excellent work in Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, why wouldn't you want him to get some recognition this year?

Predicted Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Watch Out For:
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Sam Rockwell, Vice

In a Perfect World:
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

6. Best Adapted Screenplay

Spike Lee won an honorary Oscar in 2015, but has yet to win a competitive one. Even though he should win for directing for BlacKkKlansman, he will probably at least nab a prize for its great screenplay. But really, y'all, we did Widows so dirty. It should be a nominations leader this year, and one of its biggest assets is its script.

Predicted Nominees:
Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A Star Is Born
Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Watch Out For:
Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace

In a Perfect World:
Gillian Flynn & Steve McQueen, Widows

7. Best Original Screenplay

And here's your reminder that Green Book's writer Nick Vallelonga agreed with Trump on a racist, Anti-Muslim lie about 9/11! Speaking of controversies, Paul Schrader seemed like more of a sure thing before his Facebook post defending Kevin Spacey! Instead of recognizing them, I wish we could recognize A Quiet Place or Hereditary, both of which are underappreciated because they are horror films or Tamara Jenkins' quiet, contemplative Private Life.

Predicted Nominees:
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Adam McKay, Vice
Nick Vallelonga & Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Watch Out For:
Paul Schrader, First Reformed

In a Perfect World:
Ari Aster, Hereditary
Bryan Woods, Scott Beck & John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
Tamara Jenkins, Private Life

If you want to watch the Oscar nominations livestream, just head over to the Academy's YouTube page at 5:20 a.m. PST or 8:20 a.m. EST.

Related | Queer Films Won Big at the Globes -- But Queer Representation Did Not

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Mathew Rodriguez