This story originally appeared on The Advocate.
George Santos built a political career on fabrications about himself. Now federal investigators are examining whether the disgraced former congressman and convicted felon may have profited from misleading people about what he planned to do.
The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating Santos over trades placed on the prediction-market platform Kalshi regarding whether he would attend President Donald Trump's February 24 State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress, according to NPR. Kalshi also referred the matter to federal regulators after flagging the activity.
According to NPR's reporting, Santos allegedly wagered that he would not attend the speech. Yet the day before the address, he posted a video on social media indicating he planned to be there.
Instead, Santos never showed up.
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During the speech, he posted from an airport, writing that watching the address from an airport television "was not part of the plan." Shortly afterward, odds on the Kalshi market tied to his attendance reportedly collapsed. NPR reported that Kalshi froze Santos' account and referred the matter to both the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Federal investigators are examining whether Santos used information known only to him — namely, his intent to attend the speech — to profit from traders who believed his public statements. Sources familiar with the matter told NPR the trades may have generated tens of thousands of dollars in profits.
Reached by NPR, Santos said the investigation was "news to me." Asked whether he maintained a Kalshi account, he reportedly declined to provide a direct answer.
Neither the Justice Department nor the CFTC has publicly commented on the investigation.
The allegations come less than a year after Santos returned to public life following one of the most dramatic political downfalls in modern congressional history.
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The former New York Republican was expelled from the House in 2023 after a bipartisan vote that followed a devastating Ethics Committee report detailing extensive financial misconduct. Federal prosecutors later secured guilty pleas on fraud and identity theft charges tied to campaign fundraising schemes and the misuse of donor funds.
Santos was sentenced to 87 months in federal prison in April 2025. But after serving less than three months, he was released when Trump commuted his sentence, calling the punishment excessive and arguing Santos had been mistreated while incarcerated.
Since his release, Santos has remained a fixture in conservative media and on social media, periodically resurfacing in political debates despite his criminal convictions.
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Prediction markets such as Kalshi have grown rapidly during the second Trump administration, allowing users to trade contracts tied to elections, legislation, economic indicators, and even the attendance of public figures at major events. The company has previously taken action against political candidates accused of trading on outcomes they could directly influence.
Santos, a prolific figure on X, has not tweeted since the news broke.
